Directed Research Funding and Entrepreneurial Outcomes in Jordan: A Comparative Assessment of University Seed Grants and National Innovation Funds (2023 – 2025)

Abstract

Purpose – This study investigates whether the origin of research finance—university seed-grants versus national innovation funds—shapes both the volume and quality of research-driven start-ups in Jordan. Design/methodology – A multi-source dataset (244 project files, SRISF & ISSF registries, GEM indicators) was merged and propensity-score matched, yielding 67 comparable projects funded between January 2023 and June 2025. Venture quantity was tested with negative-binomial models; venture quality with logistic regression. Hayes’ PROCESS Model 4 assessed mediation by incubation intensity. Findings – National funding more than doubles venture counts (IRR = 2.10, p < .001) and trebles the likelihood of patenting or ≥ JOD 50 k follow-on finance (OR = 3.52, p = .004). About 31 % of this quality premium is transmitted through incubation services.Originality/value – This is the first causal, Jordan-specific evaluation of funding provenance. Recommended levers—off-cycle micro-grants, KPI-linked disbursements, an R&D “tax concierge,” gender-equity scoring, and deep-tech fast lanes—could fast-track progress toward the Economic Modernization Vision 2033 target of 3.4 % R&D-to-GDP.